If it seems too good to be true, find a mathematician and have the data tested statistically. To find the truth, we need to look at what happens on the worst day. [6] Author Nassim Taleb has asserted that the book included sections plagiarised from Taleb's manuscript of Antifragile. Go alone or, better yet, take two ugly friends. The Art of Thinking Clearly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic activity—all we need is less irrationality. It is NOT. The Art of Thinking Clearly is a 2013 book by the Swiss writer Rolf Dobelli which describes in short chapters 99 of the most common thinking errors - ranging from cognitive biases to envy and social distortions. Already an international bestseller, The Art of Thinking Clearly distills cutting-edge research from behavioral economics, psychology, and neuroscience into a clever, practical guide for anyone who's ever wanted to be wiser and make better decisions. These are examples of cognitive biases, simple errors we all make in our day-to-day thinking. Some came with two or three names attached to them. Confirmation bias: we interpret evidence to support our existing beliefs. When asked what the deadliest shark […], In the search for happiness, we often confuse how something looks with how it’s likely to make us feel. Rolf Dobelli enumerates 99 thinking errors, or cognitive biases, in The Art of Thinking Clearly, dispensing as he does tips for leading a more rational, less error-prone life. The Art of Thinking Clearly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic activity—all we need is less irrationality. “Anyone can steer the ship when the sea is […], Survivorship bias refers to the idea that we get a false representation of reality when we base our understanding only on the experiences of those who live to tell their story. Then it is the subject’s turn again. The team enthusiastically celebrates any sign that the strategy is a success. If you have never learned about biases or our irrationality, this book is a good one to start with. 9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias 10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect 11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO MAP AT ALL: Availability Bias 12 WHY ‘NO PAIN, NO GAIN’ SHOULD SET ALARM BELLS RINGING: The It’ll-Get-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy 13 EVEN TRUE STORIES ARE FAIRYTALES: Story Bias When you do well on a project, you probably assume that it’s because you worked hard. In one-third of cases, he will answer incorrectly to match the other people’s responses. A simple experiment, carried out in the 1950s by legendary psychologist Solomon Asch, shows how peer pressure can warp common sense. Let’s take a look at some of the content. Guard against it by frequently visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments, and careers. But by knowing what they are and how to spot them, we can avoid them and make better choices - whether dealing with a personal problem or a business negotiation; trying to save money or make money; working out what we do or don't want in life, and how best to get it. But then will it sell? The book was written as weekly columns in leading newspapers in Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, and later in two German books. People systematically overestimate their chances of success. The Art of Thinking Clearly is another one of my favourites. And, for the first time in my life, I was able to recognize when others might be in the thrall of these very same systematic errors. This is especially true when it comes to our homes. People will find you less attractive than you really are. The biggest errors in decision making requires you to forget about the Art of Thinking Clearly is reading. 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